The Archives 2004
October 18, 2004
Astros 3 Cardinals 0 OK, now I'm predicting the Astros will win the NLCS. Kudos to Phil Garner for finally realizing that Brandon Backe has the ability to locate two quality pitches, and therefore the ability to go deep into games. Backe was phenomenal--pitching the best postseason game in Astro history?--and I was absolutely positive that once Lidge had taken down the top of the Card lineup in order (in nine pitches!) that a home run for the hometown team was certain to happen. That it was Kent surprised me not at all. Finally, there is a home run bigger than Billy Hatcher's. . . .
Having watched firsthand the Marlins' run last year, I just gotta say that this run is spookily similar. I wish I lived in Houston.
Lastly, I gotta mention Dodger doofus Eric Neel, who when asked prior to Game Five about what Brandon Backe needed to do to win tonight, wrote, 'be someone else, basically.' In your face, Eric.
Off-Day Addendum:
Was so gratified to see that Garner has chosen to go with Pete Munro Wednesday afternoon. Upon further analysis, I had determined that going with Clemens on short rest in Game Six was just about the only way the Astros could lose the series. Glad to see that scenario won't come into play.
By the way, the Astros have a 70% chance of winning the NLCS. Here's how it goes:The Skinny Date Astros
ChanceCardinals
Chance
Let's not figure that the teams are equally matched Wednesday, and that Pete Munro on the mound gives the Cardinals a 60-40 chance of winning 10/20 .40 .60
Let's figure that a Hall of Famer on the mound on full rest negates the home field advantage, and the momentum coming from winning game six 10/21 .50 .50
Total chances come from multiplying the Cardinals shots at each game together and subtracting from 1.000 Total .70 .30
Cardinals 6 Astros 4 I haven't been feeling all that well and actually went to sleep early Thursday night rather than watch the game, but my girlfriend was holding down the fort, and I woke to take a piss at 11:30 as she was coming to bed, and she told me, "it was Miceli's fault," and near as I can tell she was right.
And people speak as if Miceli was a bum! I mean he's not Mariano Rivera, but he WAS the setup guy to Lidge after Dotel left, and rather reliable in September, just as Chad Qualls was reliable in September. If Miceli and Qualls are gonna give up jacks to the best lineup in baseball, at least have the honesty to blame Miceli and Qualls; it's blame I'm sure they would accept. Garner not being enough of a savant to know which previously trustworthy pitchers are gonna fail in the clutch is not a fault you can with any integrity highlight.
OK, and now about this series being over bullshit. Make no mistake, I am not predicting a Houston victory; Since game five of the Braves series, when we had to use our Game One starter, I'd been telling people I was hoping for 'Stros in seven, and execting something a little shy of that. But the Astros have several matchups in their favor as they chug into Houston: 1) Their number one starter vs. the Cards number three starter, 2) their number two starter vs. the Cards' number four starter. I mean, read the last sentence; if these were the Yanks and the Sox, every Boston apologist this side of the archdiocese would be telling us how the Sox had 'em just where they wanted 'em. And that's without me even appealing to the magic of Clemens [on full rest]!, or a 20-game winner [on full rest!], just ones and threes, and twos and fours. Second part is Houston will be at home, where (as you know) they've won 19 of their last 20, and (as you may not know) have trailed at the end of exactly one inning over their last 48 played there. Although reading the headlines at ESPN.com might make you think so, the Astros haven't exactly been blown out by the Cardinals. They've outhomered the Cardinals 6 - 4, have led or been tied for ten of the 18 innings played. Yes, the 'Stros've been outhit--but only .318 to .286. AND the Astros have used their number three and number four pitchers on the road. This has been a much closer series than the pundits would have you believe, and if you don't think it's a real possibility that Houston can lead this series after Brandon Backe's start Monday, I really don't think you've been paying attention. Although I will say that Garner needs to let Backe pitch the sixth inning.
ESPNation seems to be just about unanimous that Garner is the worst manager ever to tarnish the October playing fields, and that the Astros have just about the same chance as Ralph Nader, but I've gotta heartily disagree.
First, for Garner: 83 or some-odd percent of those polled felt that Lidge should've been brought into a tie game in the eighth inning, but I'm not seeing that. I mean, I'll readily admit that Lidge is by far the best reliever, but to expect that Lidge can be in the game whenever there's a clutch situation is unrealistic. What if Lidge pitches the eighth, evades giving up anything, and the game goes 14 innings? You gonna pitch Lidge until the game is over, threatening his availability for the games the 'Stros really gotta have in Houston? You want Harville out of the pen in the ninth on Saturday, saving Clemens' eight-inning shutout? Maybe if Miceli put a couple on, I can see coming in with Lidge to end the threat, simply 'cause that would be really your only choice; You wouldn't wait to have the lead before bringing Lidge in, coz at that point, there wouldn't BE a lead if you don't bring him in. If Miceli had given up a triple, I could see an argument. But he didn't: he gave up a solo shot, and it hurt, and it would not have made sense to bring in Lidge down by one, either, to face Pujols. . . .
Astros 12 Braves 3
And isn't this the way the world works? Game four against the Braves hurt so much that when the amazing Game Five rolled around, I couldn't enjoy it the way it should have been enjoyed. I'll mention insomnia and the alcohol that remained in my system, and the way I feel whenever any 40-year old men of note die of heart attacks, let alone an ex-Astro, and leave it at that. Maybe if they can beat the Cardinals, I can enjoy that one a bit more. Garner has set his rotation as if he expects to be down 2 - 0 returning to Houston, and that might be the most realistic way of looking at it from the get-go. That way, if they can steal a 9 - 7 barnburner at St. Louis, it'll seem like gravy to the players. This may actually be the Series That Makes Pitching Superfluous; the loser may lose coz they "only" hit .450 during the series. If the Cardinals are not exactly quaking in their boots over the prospect of facing Pete Munro in Game Two, I think the same can be said of the Astros hitters and Woody Williams. . . .
Braves 6 Astros 5
Ouch.
Braves 4 Astros 2
So I know you kind of need to try to write during the playoffs, but it's taken me 24 hours to be able to write of the Thursday game. I made a hundred dollar shipping mistake at work Thursday and received an unexpected thousand dollar hospital bill that night, but those things were only the acrid icing on the bitter Astros-playoff-loss cake. And only now am I able to consider the thing with anything approaching rationality.
I think we should get it straight. These may or may not be your daddy's Astros, but that IS the only question worth asking. Lay off Lidge, who gave up a run over 2-2/3, not so bad. Lay off Garner, who's used Lidge for four outs several times, most recently last Sunday, in the much heralded clincher. My reasoning on that is as follows: I'm sure that no-one would complain if they brought in Lidge to start the ninth. And if so, they can't complain about bringing him in with two outs in the eighth. So they then can't complain if they bring in Lidge for four outs. And of course, the game was tied before Lidge got his fourth out. So what if that was in the eighth. Now if a tired Lidge had blown the save in the ninth, it'd be a different story.
No, for all that the 2004 team has insisted that this year's club be treated with on their own terms instead of in comparison to previous teams, the real stories here are the same ones that have afflicted the Astros in previous playoffs. ohnojust like2001justlike99justlike97.
Lack of hitting, rotten luck, and the Braves. Nothing I've read anywhere today makes any mention of Game three of the '99 NLDS, but the parallels to me were obvious. Astros leading middle late, the Braves ruin that, and win in extras. Oh yeah and Mike Hampton started. Sure, there are some differences; the Astros had twice as many hits in '99, and there was no Walt Weiss play, but I remember watching that game and being simply afeared of the outcome, hoping against it but having a good idea who was gonna win. And also knowing that whoever won the game would win the series. My suspicion for the game proved true as did my knowledge for the series.
Now, while you've gotta acknowledge the ghosts (cause they are in attendance friends, and you cannot deny it), I am still not ready to cede the series to the Braves. There is that difference. I can still imagine the Astros backing Backe with seven or eight, and I can imagine Backe winning a low scoring game. He's certainly had his moments, and earlier this week I believe I was making the argument that Garner pulled him too soon. And the history of the Astros against Thomson is good. So I can see the 'Stros winning a couple different ways; I STILL think they have a good chance of winning game three. They better win game three.
come playoff time as the Astroman tracks the excruciating first three innings of NLDS Game One
Astros 5 Rockies 3
Brandon Backe was the right choice all along. And Garner pulled him too early, to boot. Having done the Marlins thing last year after the Astros blew that weekend series to the Brewers, the thought occurred to me at dinner tonight that Phil Garner is enjoying the same run of saintliness that Jack McKeon did late last year. Nothing the guy does backfires, all his decisions are the right ones.
But of course it's not that. McKeon's team--and now Garner's team--was playing at such a high level that they'd rendered the managerial decisions irrelevant. Whatever Garner decides these days, the team will respond with winning baseball. Pull Backe after 5 scoreless when he's got his best curve of the year and is pitching the game of his life? No problem, the Astros will respond to that questionable decision by doing what it takes to win. And of course, if Garner'd left Brandon in, Houston would have won as well. Hell, the Astros would've won if they'd started a Roger Clemens who was wheelchair-bound and still hooked up to his IV.
Oh yeah and Lidge, he's got balls the size of grapefruits. Yesterday he's talking about how pumped up he was for today's game, then tonight he enters in the eighth with a guy on. You could see him overwhelmed by the immensity of it, there on his face and in his body language as he receives the ball back from Ausmus, and he goes to 3 - 2 on Garrett Atkins, and I'm thinking don't go to the slider, throw him a fastball and if he hits it, he hits it, cause Lidge's gotta be so pumped up that he'll be unable to control the slider, and you cannot walk Atkins and put the tying run on base.
So of course, Lidge throws a perfect, unhittable slider, and Garrett siwngs and misses, fairly meekly, too, inning over, and it would not be anywhere near as tense in the ninth.
Icewater in the veins, brass balls, whatever you want to call it. I was amazed by the presence Lidge found to throw that perfect slider. This is not Roger Clemens, this is a 2-year veteran still not that far removed from an injury-plagued minor league career, who at the beginning of the seasion was to be the understudy, the setup guy. Yet somehow he found himself asked to get four outs in the biggest game he's ever played in. 43,000 people screaming shouting expecting him to succeed, and he gets himself to the full count. It was the final out of the game that made the highlight package at mlb.com, but really, it was the last out of the eighth inning that amazed me. And I now wonder how I ever thought that Octavio Dotel could possibly be a better closer than Brad Lidge. The Astros were 26 - 20 over their first 46 games, 19 - 27 over the following 46, 30 - 16 over the 46 after that, and 36 - 10 over the overlapping final 46. 36 - 10 is a number that makes you think not of the '03 Marlins but of the '84 Tigers, and I wonder how many teams all-time have been as good over a 7-week stretch. I guess the '02 Athletics with their 20-game win streak come to mind as well.
As always the playoffs for Houston will start during my work hours. But now I know about Gamecast, and it shouldn't be quite so brutal. I can see myself now, though, in the darkened post 5:00 office as the game winds down, unable to leave the gamecast and rely on the radio for the infrequent updates. Not because of history, but just coz it's the playoffs, I understand all bets are off, but I kinda like the guy we have on the hill for Game One. . . .
Eric Bruntlett homered yesterday. Jose Vizcaino had a three-hit game today. I think the day before it was Bagwell who stepped up and the day before that, it was Jason Lane. And every day that we need him, Lidge. The last month or so, Phil Garner is simultaneously the most important and the most superfluous presence in the state of Texas.
Astros 2 Cardinals 1 OK, it's gotten to the point where it'll be a disappointment if they don't get in, 'cause right now, it looks like '98 Yankee or '03 Marlin-style fate, the Astros are MEANT to wriggle into the party. It wasn't taking 2 of 3 from the hundred-win Cardinals in St Louis that got me thinking this way; it wasn't the Berkman shot in the ninth inning of game three at San Fran to take the lead for the first time since the first inning of game one that did it, it was Victor freaking Diaz. Instead, they trailed by 2-1/2, and the Astros haven't lost since, and the Cubs--still having to play an extra game--well, they've only won once since.
I guess you could make the argument that this is not necessarily pro-Astros mojo, that it's anti-Cub mojo, that once the Cubs knock themselves out, the fates really don't have an opinion between the 'Stros and the Giants one way or the other, and I really wouldn't have a rebuttal for that, other than that the Astros are the only one of the three not playing a division leader this weekend. Or that they're the only ones going for a sweep tonight at home with a Cy Young candidate on the hill. Or that they're the only ones with a .750+ winning percentage over their last 42 games. . . . Really, each of the teams fighting it out for the wild card are flawed: the Cubs by their poor execution and the Prior/Wood combo looking like something a lot lower on the food chain, the 'Stros by their lack of a third starter ands their sheer maddening streakiness, and the Giants by their lack of anyone after Jason Schmidt, who I know they're overjoyed to have back in Aceland. None of the teams I think will advance past the first round. But if you asked me which team will actually get in, and did it right now September 29, 8:46 PM, I'd say that team would be the Houston Astros.
Are you kidding me? Victor Diaz for the--and I quote some online wiseacre or the other here--"walking dead that currently inhabit Shea?" Victor Diaz, who had his contract purchased from Norfolk on September 11 after spending most of the year unable to crack the Rockies major league lineup? It's Victor Diaz of the Mets who hits a two-out two-strike ninth inning homer to tie up the Cubs? This of course on a day when the Astros were having their hat handed to them by the Brewers, who coincidentally, or not so, were present on the field when last year's season finally expired of causes believed by coroners to have been apathy. The Astros had already lost 8 - 0 to the Brew Crew, bad enough in itself, but it was to Wes Obermuller who pitched his first career complete game in doing so, and had LaTroy Hawkins been able to get that last strike on Diaz the 'Stros would have trailed the Cubs by 3-1/2 games, with seven to go.
I've got a feeling the Cubs know they're doomed, maybe all the whining and complaining shows that they've known all along that they're doomed, but even if they didn't bear that Mark of Cain, their fundamentals are so poor that they'd stick out in the dance anyway.
Astros 5 Reds 2
Whoaaa. Twelve wins in a row. Eleven straight wins scoring six or more runs. AVERAGING nearly 9-1/2 runs a game over a ten game stretch. Oswalt leading the league in wins, and as good a Cy Young candidate as anyone else, now that Schmidt has faded. Mike Lamb, of all people, the hottest player in the league. Tied for the lead in the wild card race as I write, prior to tonight's Cubs game.
The Astros' hot streak has been nothing short of jaw-dropping, not only due to the simple unexpectedness of it all, but also because of just how gosh-darned dominant they have been. Middle to bottom of the pack a mere 4 weeks ago, the Astros now find themselvers second leaguewide in team OBP, fourth in runs and slugging, and fifth in hitting. A hundred runs in ten days will do that for you. . .
OK, no-one can ignore that the Astros are back in the wild card chase. But can they really win it? Well, I certainly hope the inevitable tailoff from the hot streak does not become a crash. As hot as the bats are now, is how cold they were in June. And the bullpen beyond Lidge is a serious liability, to the point where I'd almost guarantee that if the Astros DO make the playoffs, they would be unable to advance. Not everyone else has a Seanez-Mota-Benitez, Linebrink/Otsuka/Hoffman trio to close the six inning lead down, but those who don't--the Cards and the Giants-- are the ones who'd be brutally punishing your guys. I kind of like what I've seen from Dan Wheeler, but Mike Gallo? Russ Springer? These guys are not the solution. They are the problem. I read something how Miceli might be coming back shortly, and I hope he does, coz I think Lidge is getting tired. It has really hurt the team that in several of the recent wins in which the team took a large lead early, after the middle relief gave up some runs, they were unable to close the game without going to Lidge. At some point--and it might be soon, seeing the last 8 innings of today's victory--the Astros are going to stop scoring so prodigiously. And at that time the team is going to have to rely on a bullpen that has been very shaky, even during the long win streak.
The Astros also have six games left against the Cardinals. And there's no reason why they can't split those games. But the 'Stros may need a 4 - 2 series win to stay even with the Cubs, who, after their doubleheader-laced sets with the Marlins, face a marshmallow schedule. So down the road a bit it could get tough.
But first somebody's gotta beat Houston, and no-one's been able to do that for nearly two weeks. So, until they lose, I really like their chances.
Astros 7 Cubs 6
The Astros have been playing very well lately, and as I write late this Saturday, they are poised to play their biggest game of the season tomorrow, their biggest game since last Sunday anyway. . .
That particular contest vs. the Cubs is still being talked about, and probably will be for some time to come, but what has been obscured if not lost behind all the Oswalt/Bagwell/Barrett psychoanalysis is just how important that game was to the Astros' slim playoff chances. A win in that series vs. the Cubs would have been a huge emotional lift . . .
But Oswalt got lit up, then got thrown out, and the Astros got blown away. Yet the team has been playing so well that one week later it has put itself back in the position it was a week ago: with a chance to take a series from the hated Cubs and to get within five of them in the wild card standings, to boot. I'll be honest here: I thought the season was over last Sunday, that there were gonna be no last gasps. But then again, I didn't think the 'Stros were gonna take 3 out of 4 at Wrigley.
And they still might not. But if Carlos Hernandez can defeat Matt Clement on Sunday, the Astros will draw to 4 back of the Cubs, with the Reds on the road, and the Pirates, and the Reds at home coming up, while the Cubs have home and aways with Montreal . . .and fellow wild card hopefuls Florida. Hmmm. . .the Astros take 7 of 9 while the Drubs and the Fish beat the c#$% out of each other. . .this might actually get interesting. The Cubs have led the wild card race for a while now, but don't be deceived: they're still a trainwreck. The most recent evidence of this is the hilarious fan-kicking incident that's gonna have zen-master Kyle Farnsworth out for some time to come. After pointing to his return all year, they're discovering that Borowski is having trouble getting into the mid-eighties, so he's not gonna be any help. . .Sheesh, the Cubs got so desperate, they took a waiver wire stab at Jose Mesa. And those who've paid attention to Bags this year can relate to Sassy Soma's decline: it's gotten to the point where he's being praised for hitting singles, and accepting a demotion in the lineup.
So the Cubs are vulnerable, and if we can extrapolate hopefully a little bit, certainly the Astros' own level of play lately does not render such playoff talk ridiculous. The Astros' current 10 - 3 run is its best since April 29 to May 11, when they went 10 - 2, a week before getting swept during a 4-game in Cincinnati that effectively started a plunge that only in the last fortnight has levelled off. After hitting .266 in July, Lance Berkman is hitting 100 points higher in August, and he has seen his slugging percentage rise 140 points over the same span. After a cool start to the month, Biggio has hits in six of his last seven games, and doubles in three of them. He also had his ninth three-hit game of the season August 22 vs. the Phillies. You've probably noticed that Roy Oz is 5 - 1 with a 2.90 for the month of August, even if it is with that cheapie he got vs. the Phils Tuesday, but I hadn't realized that he is now tied with Jason Schmidt and Carl Pavano for the League lead in victories. I know I was making some jokes about Roy winning 20, but yikes, how did that happen? Roy didn't pitch particularly well vs. the Cubs in his last start, so I think the long term effects of this whole Bagwell-opened-his-mouth-to-the-media thing are still to be seen. But no question Roy's been on a roll.
I'm not gonna mention the bullpen (although Dave Weathers has been reassigned); you still are just gonna have to cross your fingers and pray when it's close and late down the stretch, but I will mention the next biggest worry after that, and that is of course Jeff Bagwell. For a week now I've been living with the guilt of having publicly called for Bagwell to retire. Christ, what a statement for an Astro fan to have to live with. . .even if it is sound advice. And it probably is , but Jeff does have 7 hits in the Cubs series, with two doubles and two homers. Get Bags going, with Berkman catching fire, and Beltran (homers in five straight games ending Saturday) staying hot, and the wretched bullpen leading up to Lidge might not matter. Hard to believe, but the Astros just might have a shot at the playoffs.
If they can take care of Matt Clement Sunday.
Astros 5 Expos 4
It's been a month since I last wrote, and I'm feeling all guilty about that but sure has been tough to get excited about anything. The Killing of Jimmah, when it was done, was done cleanly, and that's good, but Phil Garner has not squeezed any more life out of the jaded club than Williams had, and oh my God, the bullpen is the worst it's been I think since I became a fan.
I find the lack of intensity in the team's play absolutely incredible. What, between four future Hall of Famers, maybe five, maybe more, they can't come up with the energy to win a game when down after eight innings? That's my favorite stat these days, that the Astros are 0 - 50 when trailing after 8. The article on the Astros the other day on ESPN.com had the tone of a eulogy, with Clemens and Pettitte, although too professional to say so, both apparently regretting that they ever signed with the 'Stros, and at least with Pettitte, the feeling on the club's part may be mutual. I really do think it's all over for Bagwell, as great as he's been, as much pain as he's played through, he should give up the idea of 500 homers and have the grace to retire after the year. The money he'd save the club would do the club good in hastening the rebuilding process. I wish Biggio--who still can help the club-- would stay in Houston to see it, but unless Bagwell really does retire (and I don't think he really will), there's no way Biggio is a member of the 2005 Astros. So he takes up the chase for 3000 hits with another club. That's gonna be tough to watch.
Saw that Carlos Hernandez got the start and took the loss last Saturday. That's the thinking . . .bringing up more prospects as the situation allows would also be a good idea, Chris Burke and Chad Qualls again would be a start, then maybe Hector Gimenez, Ramon German, and Tommy Whiteman. Here's an eye-opener for you: Maybe it's Oswalt and not Clemens who wins 20?
Dodgers 7 Astros 4
We've hit the All-Star break, and it's time for good news, for a change. Like Berkman doing so well in the Home Run Derby, or Chris Burke getting a hit and scoring a run in the Futures Game. And maybe Clemens'll go psycho and beat up Mike Piazza in front of an audience of millions tonight. . . .
Imagine the smiles that'll bring, and then think how much an Astros fan needs them. Carlos Beltran is hitting .263 as an Astro, and if I'm correct still does not have a hit while playing at Minute Maid. Roger Clemens is 3 - 3 over his last 6 decisions and over his last 11 starts. Jeff Bagwell is slugging .235 for July.
I've personally been checking out ESPN.com each day over the last month or so, looking for the note that Mistah Jimmah has been relieved of his duties, and nothing, but it looks like the axe may really fall tomorrow, as Hunsicker, McLane and Williams are gonna get together for a small All-Star Game recap. I'm smart enough to know that it probably won't help, that the team's mediocre power, speed and defense has doomed it to a middle of the pack finish, despite the preseason hype. But cripes, you gotta do something. You've got to think about the future.
Angels 6 Astros 4
Well, the season appears to be careening out of control quite nicely now. Even Roger Clemens can't put a good start together now, and the trade of Hidalgo--as logical as it might have been--has put an edge of sadness to the affair that had been lacking during any of the recent collapses.
It's almost surreal: The Astros stand 6-1/2 back of the division-leading Cardinals, and two games out of fourth. Granted, the Central is surprisingly competitive, but no-one thought the Astros would be in fifth place 67 games in.
I'd say that Jimy Williams is on the hot seat, and he probably is, but the team's flaws as have been recently exposed go way past leadership and pulling pitchers too early. What screams at you first and foremost is defensively. With Hidalgo gone, Everett injured, and Ausmus totally subpar so far, the 'Stros are reduced to calling Raul Chavez--bless his heart, but he's basically a career minor leaguer--their best defensive player. Biggio gets great jumps, and lays it all out on the line, as he always has, but you can't get around it: his arm is weak, and he might as well be running around back there with a neon sign strapped to his back, saying "Take the Extra Base on Me!" Even more seriously, he appears to have developed a complex about the Hill. It has completely whipped him so far in 2004, and it's gotten to the point where Bidge doesn't even want to talk about it. He's defeated before he even takes a stab at the ball, and I'm not sure we'll see him make a catch on the Hill this year. Berkman, too, has shown that he can drop catchable fly balls, but maybe you think about switching him to center, and let Craig breathe the sigh of relief that would come with moving to left. And maybe his arm's a little less of a weakness out there. Lane still looks uncomfortable in right, but he does have a pretty good arm, and odds are he'll be the least of the Astros' problems as they coast in.
Maybe I was wrong on the Dotel/Lidge thing. I've been pretty much defending Dotel--and for the most part will probably continue to do that--but maybe Dotel really is the guy you want in the eighth, and Lidge, despite his youth, should be the closer. Three weeks ago, ten games over, it seemed too radical to me. But now, desperate measures seem less, um, desperate, and it does make a certain kind of sense. Do you really want your closer, no matter how nasty his stuff, to have such a casual relationship with the strike zone? Dotel gets away with working from behind in the count more often than most would 'cause he gets so much movement, but I can think of several situations where he got bit on a 3-ball pitch. He's not gonna get away scot-free all the time. Although I've seen Lidge get hammered this year, it's never been because he was behind in the count. So yeah, I'm thinking maybe our closer should throw more strikes.
Not that it's done much good, but I kind of liked dropping Bagwell to fifth. With two homers and a double since the start of the Angels series, it appears to be working, and hell, he can walk in front of Mike Lamb as well as Berkman can, if not better. But maybe you get Lane into the 6-hole, maybe like, immediately.
I'd also like to see a string of consecutive quality starts from both Oswalt and Miller, and any situation that results in not having to call Jose Vizcaino our hottest hitter. Everett and Pettitte returning will be nice, too, but this is a deep hole they've dug, and they've dug it very quickly. I doubt the Cardinals are gonna win the division, but the Astros are now looking up at four teams. They'll have to get hot--probably Tampa Bay-style hot--to have any chance at all.
And I don't know if they're capable of playing as well, or as hard, as the D-Rays right now. :(
Astros 5 Cubs 1
This, ladies and gentlemen, is a nice win. Beyond the mere facts that the Astros avoided falling behind Cincinnati by 3-1/2 games, and did go up on the Cubs by 2, all sorts of other nice stuff was achieved by Mr. Clemens et al on the North side today. For example, after coming into Chicago on the heels of a five-game road losing streak, the Astros will now leave Chi-town with a two game road winning streak. When Mssr. Patterson flied out off Dotel, he clinched the Cubs' seventh loss in the last nine games. The Imminent Return of Mark Prior or no, the Cubs are playing lousy baseball. And if by some chance Prior doesn't win Friday night, Cubs fans--and more importantly, the Cubs themselves--could be thrust into a very deep depression by a sudden realization of the hole they are digging for themselves. Losers of four of five now to the team most expected to challenge them in their quest to lift the heaviest NL monkey of all off their collective backs, the Cubs have also lost 4 of 6 to Cincinnati, who continue to confound everybody by not pitching to expectations.
For those of you not already aware, Lance Berkman raised his on-base percentage to .502 in today's game. His OPS for the month of May was 1.306 and over the last week it's been 1.642. No need to tell you these numbers are insane, and that he's treading into Bondsian territory. But if Kent can continue to reach, as he has during his current 18-game hit streak, and if the Lamb-Ensberg platoon (!) continues to produce, Berkman should continue to see some pitches--and should continue to drive them.
The Astros are chasing Cincinnati, also, and have actually done the Cubs one worse by losing 5 of 7 to the f$*^ing Redlegs, but much better to be looking up at one team, rather than four. Plus the Astros've got the whole Pythagorean thing going on. It sounds like whining when I complain to my Marlins-primary girlfriend when I say that the Astros have been extraordinarily unlucky, but the run differentials actually show I'm kind of right. No team has a better expected won/loss than the Astros at 32 - 19. Meanwhile, the Reds should be at .500, according to James. So despite their incredible hitting, I still expect them to fade. And I think that the next time Vizcaino rips a liner in the ninth with two on down by one, it'll drop in. And I don't think another umpire will have the audacity to call a balk in the tenth inning. And I think that the next time Berkman faces Armando Benitez with the bases loaded, he'll get the marginal call. And so on.
This team has the potential to be the best Astros team since '98. The pieces are all there, and it will come together, I'm sure, in a magnificent 11-0 or 16 - 2 or some such run, when the bloops fall in, and the liners are not snagged.
Either that, or it's gonna go down awfully hard here at Astroland.
And if he does that, the Astros should be just fine.
Marlins 6
Astros 2
I've got the feeling I will be seeing the Astros in person again this season, be it in a playoff game against the Marlins, or simply at some point during the year at Minute Maid, but just finished off doing my annual three-games-at-Pro-Player thing, which in most years would be my only direct experience with the team.
They certainly made my half-hour drives out to the park worth it.
Just for good measure, the pitching staff leads the NL in strikeouts and WHIP,
So, really if you subscribe as I do to the Dotel-is-gonna-be-alright school of thought, the only worry right now might be Roy Oswalt. The loss to Beckett last night was his sixth straight start without a win. I know he's reguarly throwing 96 and 97 (coz the Marlins' scoreboard sign was telling me so), and I know that hes throwing 72 mile an hour curve balls for strikes. But he's been wild and he's getting hammered when he's over the plate. So I dunno. If Redding is gonna keep making quality starts, we can get away with another subpar start or two from our ace. But protracted ineffectiveness from Oswalt would cause big problems in the Astros efforts to keep both the Cubs and the scarier-by-the-minute Cardinals at arms length.
Even with Hidalgo plunging headlong into what could prove to be a dismal slump, what I saw over at the stadium formerly known as Joe Robbie was a pretty awesome lineup. Much of the talk after Sunday's brutal loss to the Mets was concerning Dotel's pitch selection with two outs and two strikes to Piazza in the ninth, but of much more concern to me was the 17 men left on base in that game. Coming off a couple less spectacularly subpar offensive performances, I had begun to wonder whether-- against all logic really, when you look at the lineup, top to bottom --maybe a longterm teamwide slump WAS in fact possible.
Um, maybe not. The Astros wasted no time jumping all over Dontrelle Willis in the series opener, and kept it up throughout game two against Carl Pavano. I was disappointed with the loss in the finale, but not THAT disappointed. Josh Beckett, looking to make up for a subpar performance last Sunday in St. Louis, no doubt, appeared to be in control of the Astros hitters throughout, and Roy Oswalt got hit around pretty good. All in all a game you just chalk up, a good pitcher for a good team on the road in a game the home team needed badly. Yet still, the Astros had a chance to tie it late with a single swing of the bat by the player most likely to tie it with a single swing of the bat. I'm still not sure whether Berkman got jobbed on Armando Benitez' final pitch to him, but if Berkman had lifted one up and over that Miccosukee sign--and nothing would have surprised me less--the game woulda been tied.
Berkman is currently on another planet. I have never heard the report of a ball against a bat resound throughtout a stadium so loudly as one of Willis' pitches did against Berkman's bat in the first game. And that was just just his double in the fourth; he also had two homers to center during the series, and four other hits. Even his outs were loud, powerful affairs--one of which was hit back to Josh Beckett so hard that the pitcher was knocked backward.
So right now its Berkman, and not Hidalgo, Ensberg and not Biggio. But I have the feeling that throughtout the year, it's always going to be somebody. With the emergence of Everett as a miniature Juan Pierre, with more power, and Ausmus' pleasant .265-or-so start, I just don't see any long term scoring droughts. Although the Mets series had me scared. Just for your scorekeeping pleasure, here are the offensive categories in which the Astros lead the National League as I sit here doing my typing, listening to Gravity Keeps the Hours and catching glimpses of what is looking like a Cubs matinee loss to the Cardinals:
1) Runs Scored
2) RBIs
3) Hits
4) On Base Percentage
5) Batting Average
and are tied with the Cubs for BA against.
First a word from the vanquished about the soon-to-be-vanquished . . . Braves 5 Astros 4 (10)
Assuming Andy Pettitte can get the win tomorrow, there's really no reason to think that tonight's 10-inning loss should have any long-term effect at all. Cubs had already lost at Colorado when the game started, and it's not likely that the oddity of the game, which saw Jimy Williams, John Tamargo, AND Roy Oswalt ejected by an umpire who at game's end clearly had a chip on his shoulder, will have much long term effect at all. It was a tough loss, as through seven innings, it appeared Oswalt was cruising to another win, and one that was reminiscent of his complete game triumph at Milwaukee a few weeks back. But in the eighth inning he looked like the pitcher last week in Pittsburgh, one who had mysteriously lost any idea of where the strike zone might be. For seven innings, Oswalt was mixing his pitches masterfully, dropping in 60 mile an hour curves right after 96 mph fastballs, and mixing in his middle-of-the-road slider for good effect when he thought he could. It was my no doubt gloomy, pessimistic thought that perhaps the reason Oswalt could not find the zone in Pittsburgh was that he was experiencing a twinge somewhere (somewhere down under, most likely) that was keeping him from finding his motion and release point. I'm pretty sure that this couldn't have been the case versus the Braves, right? But the loss of control was so sudden. . .
Beyond everything I've said above, Craig Biggio's start has been nothing short of amazing. One of the highlights of the Saturday game was his 2500th hit. Two more were his 7th and 8th homers. His OPS stood at 1.001 before his 3 for 5 Saturday, and he is fifth in the league in doubles and 7th in average. Even his outfield jumps seem markedly improved. While still a longshot, both his 3000th hit and his retiring an Astro seem just a little more likely this early May morning. . . .
I'm sure it's nothing to worry about.
So the Astros were prevented from becoming the first NL club to win their 20th, but again, this loss seems more like a speed bump than anything else, Houston has started so very successfully. Through Thursday, the Astros led the NL in Runs, RBI's, On-Base percentage, and OPS. They were second in strikeouts through Friday, and second in opponent's batting average and OPS, as well. Biggio, Bagwell, Kent, Berkman, Hidalgo and Lamb were all at .290 or better, and Everett was not far behind. And of course Clemens is 6 - 0. Even Redding is coming off a successful outing. Baseball is a game of streaks, and obviously such a high level of play won't continue--and maybe Saturday's game against Atlanta will prove a handy demarcation point--but there are SO many players doing well, that you would think a long, disastrous team slump is nearly impossible. And the Cubs (as our friends above reminded us) have not been exactly tearing it up. It was Maddux who lost to the Rockies Saturday, and that was coming off Thursday's announcement that Alex Gonzalez is gonna be out six to eight. I had posted elsewhere prior to Friday's game that I thought it pretty clear that the Astros were right now, the best team in the NL. Two games later, I wouldn't change my mind on that.
Brewers 6 Astros 2 Won't get fooled again, huh? Conventional wisdom had that Roger Clemens would be a very positive influence on the entire staff, but most especially on Tim Redding. Tim Redding's extremely successful spring, coupled with the fact that he certainly said all the right things, had many of us thinking that Redding would finally, really and truly, break out this year. And it was Oswalt we were worried about, because he'd expressed reservations about joining Clemens' rigorous workout schedule.
Well, it looks like my prediction of a 17-win season for Tim can be consigned to the scrap heap where all overly bold preseason predictions find their end. After literally making just one bad pitch in the opener, Oswalt stands at 1 - 0, Wade Miller--a freaking bulldog, and shame on you if you doubted him--stands at 2 - 0, Roger Clemens is 2 -0, as well. . .and Redding is 0 - 2. It is also a deserved 0 - 2.
Redding has now twice run into Ben Sheets, a pitcher who continually flummoxes the 'Stros, and aside from Biggio's leadoff homer last night, Sheets has given up nothing to us. But Redding has brought more than enough catastrophe upon himself. In last Saturday's game at Miller Park, Redding dodged some bullets early, but eventually took one in the chest when he gave up a monstrous shot to Wes Helms, and the the three run blast instantly spelled doom for the Astros, who were NOT gonna get four off Sheets. After getting two outs in the fifth, Redding, as he it seems does so very often, hit a guy, then gave up what could have been a meaningless single. But instead he then leaves one up to Helms, and the lapse of concentration with two outs cost him the game.
Last night, it was different, but the same. Atrocious defense cost Redding--there's no doubt--but once again he failed to step up. This time it was the fourth, and bush-league errors by Berkman and Bagwell had set Redding in a bad jam. But once again, he had two outs, and just could not find it within himself to make the pitch that would have gotten him out of the inning. Junior Spivey's double got Mistah Jimmah walking, and the rest was mopup. Evidently, it's fairly common knowledge in Astros circles that Redding's velocity is down from when he first came up, although Dierker's short aside last night was news to me. Dirk said that as Redding's command has improved (!), his velocity has dropped, and now he thought it possible, but not likely, that the velocity might return.
Andy Pettitte's swift and successful return from the DL has much more to do with Houston's chances at ultimate success than anything Tim Redding might do. Assuming And comes back quickly and right, our front four are so good, that it shouldn't make much difference WHAT our fifth starter does. But I just can't help but notice that even when placed in a situation that points him in all the right directions, Tim Redding cannot seem to turn that corner.
Was disappointed to see Jared Fernandez' poor start. I am a fan of the knuckleball, and have made no bones about my hopes in re Jared. But sending him down to New Orleans was a no-brainer. The logic of a soft-tossing crafty knuckleballer in between or following the flamethrowers makes a lot of sense, but you can't let the ideal or imagined situation blind you to the fact that the guy wasn't getting people out. Hopefully Jared can tinker with his knuckler in Metairie, and help us come midsummer. . . .
Giants 5 Astros 4
Tough loss, huh?
Although I didn't see the pitch from Oswalt that I understand Barry Bonds absolutely hammered, I did monitor the game cast on CBS Sportsline, and even as I was doing that, I couldn't help but notice some things that as they happened appeared to be poor decisions, and then in fact were borne out as just such:
On the bright side, sure is nice to come back after your ace loses at home on Opening Day with at least as good a shot at winning game two. Not sure who Andy Pettite will be facing, but c'mon, their Opening Day starter was Kirk Rueter, so it can't be that frightening. Which is good, 'coz I see the Cubs taking out the hapless (and Griffey-less) Reds again on Tuesday.
I will be doing the sportsbar, wings, and beer thing for Pettite's debut as an Astro, putting myself in as festive an atmosphere as possible for efty's first start. I hope that you do the same.
1. After Biggio walks to lead off the bottom of the first, Mistah Jimmah instructs Adam Everett to bunt. Now I know that Everett isn't Derek Jeter--or even Derek Bell--but neither is Kirk Rueter Jason Schmidt. The Astros give away an out and fail to score in the frame while leaving the bases loaded.
2. An inning later, it's Everett himself who takes the rap. With a run already in with one out, and Ausmus on second and Biggio (who'd again walked) on first, Everett swung at the second pitch he saw, and flied out. Now again, I didn't see the game, but it seemed like a perfect time to work the count. Rueter had already given up a couple baseknocks including a double by Morgan Ensberg, and after a sac by Oswalt, had walked Biggio. He stood at about 45 pitches by then, if not a few more than that, and a long at bat, even if resulting in an out, would have really primed the Astros to knock out the struggling Rueter early. Instead he was given a reprieve, and then taken totally off the hook by. . .
3. Jeff Kent. After Everett's fly and a walk by Bagwell, Kent came up with the bases full, looked at a ball, then swung at the second pitch, grounding out to the catcher. Sorry Jeff, but you simply could not have believed in the pitch that much if you hit it 30 feet. You're paid to swing the bat, but even sluggers are well advised to take pitches sometimes. Just ask the guy who hits in front of you. I still have bad memories of a second pitch Kent swung at during a down-the-stretch game vs. the Cardinals last September, letting a tired Woody Williams off the hook. It's Deja vu all over again, Jeff.
4. Gerry Hunsicker maybe will end up on this here list of poor decision-makers. Ask me in a couple months. During an offseason of seeing praise for the Astros' starters but severe doubts over Dotel's aility to close (which I thought were, um, poppycock)--Dotel takes the loss in the first game in which he appears as closer. Again, I did not see, so perhaps Dotel was N-A-S-T-Y and just got unlucky, but if Dotel can't handle the load (and man, I was so sure he could this offseason, muttering to myself with every article I read) Hunsicker's bad decision will outweigh any of the ones I mention.
Although I declined to speculate during my last go-round, the one about the signing of Andy Pettite, I had in fact thought that the events of January 12, during which Roger Clemens signed a one-year contract with the Houston Astros, were gonna go down. There was a great deal of speculation on whether the Rocket would in fact make the move, but I figured that the fact that the speculation existed at all was an indication that it was gonna happen. Living in Miami, I was disappointed yesterday that the sports-talk people here spent more time talking about the hiring of Dan Marino as Dolphins' Director of Football Operation than they did about this move that appears to affect everything in the National League. I think Roger's signing trumps even that locally-significant story. It's big news, and I gotta imagine the mood in Houston right now is giddy, even euphoric.
Click here to check out the Archives for 2003
I still am not sure, however, that this guarantees us the division. If the Astros' staff has suddenly become scary, the Cubs, with their offseason moves, are equally so, with their vaunted top four back, with Todd Walker and Derrek Lee and LaTroy Hawkins acquired. I might go so far as to say that the winner of the Central will be playing (the Phillies?) in the NLCS, but as far as whether that winner will be the Astros, I'm still not sure. The rotation of Oswalt Pettite Miller Clemens + sounds great, and could BE great, but there are questions attached to all four. With Oswalt, the question is of course with the groin. We may be looking at the early stages of a 200-win career with Roy, IF the groin holds up. It didn't hold up in 2003, but we can hope that it does in 2004. The question with Pettite is one I alluded to in the last little article I wrote, and that would be the comparatively high ERA. I'm not necessarily buying it, but people smarter than me have suggested that the rather average ERA+ for Pettite will come back to bite him in a hitters' park like MM2. The question with Wade Miller would basically have to be 2003. Was he hurt? Or just losing his effectiveness? Might the Hun even trade him?
And with Roger Clemens, the question has to be both age and desire. Yes, he was 17 - 9 last year, but like with Pettite, the ERA was less than dazzling. And the man had announced his retirement for a reason: he was getting tired of the fans, the road trips, and the workouts. I understand that the Astros are gonna work with Roger on having him pitch mostly home games, but I just wonder whether Clemens might wake up one morning in July, and question whether or not whether he made the right decision. . . .
Make no mistake: as of right now, the Astros' chances of advancing deep into the playoffs are as good as they've been since August 1, 1998, and 2004 probably stands as Craig Biggio and Jeff Bagwell's last, best chance to get the championship they deserve, at least as teammates. But nothing is written in stone. The last three years have truly highlighted how much luck plays into becoming world champions in this sport. McLane and Hunsicker have assembled the talent, but whether the luck necessary follows still remains to be seen.
I was delighted to hear that Tim Bogar has rejoined the organization as the manager of the Astros' new Appalachian League entry at Greeneville, Tennessee, With Sean Berry coaching at Round Rock, it makes me wonder when we might be seeing another couple B's join the minor- or even major-league coaching/managerial ranks upon their retirement. Hopefully, Bogar will be able to coach the kind of defense he most often played. . . .
Click here to go back to Astroland Home