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The Archives
Well, I guess the previously scheduled diatribe has been cancelled due to events that didn't happen. The writing on the wall six weeks or so ago was that Ausmus would become a Padre, and that Richard Hidalgo would be shed somewhere. As these were our two best defensive players, I was somewhat worried about the ramifications for 2004 and beyond. Ausmus quickly signed for a pay cut (!), and it appears as if any deal the 'Stros might make with Hidalgo would have them pay 50% of the 12 mil due him. Considering that he was team MVP for 2003, hit .300, and was the best defensive right fielder in the majors last year, to hell with the Gold Glove, the Astros might as well keep him, no? The winter meetings in New Orleans are ongoing as I write, and anything can always happen, but it looks like Richie will be gunning down men at the plate for the 'Stros in 2004.
So instead of the deterioration of our defense, I get to talk about the improvement of our starting pitching, and the departure of Geoff Blum.
I'll leave the Clemens stuff for later, see if it happens, but wanna mention Geoff Blum. They traded him to the D-Rays for a reliever of no stature on a Sunday during the winter meetings, clearing up some salary for a better relief guy, and he clearly was expendable. You know I'm all over Ensberg, and Morgan has earned the job. But Blum was always a classy and gutsy player, and more than most times, I wish him luck and success over in Tampa. He's the kind of versatile player who can help the gradually-becoming-very-interesting Devil Rays.
The Andy Pettite deal has been the number one story in baseball since it occurred Thursday noon time, and rightly so. With Schilling signing with the Sox, and Vazquez with the Yankees, Pettite's defection may not be THE single biggest signing of the offseason, as Jeff Kent's was last year, but it's close, awfully close. The backstory of Steinbrenner and Co.'s disrespect of the classy lefthander plays awfully well during a winter marked by the running story of King George taking the reins back, desperately. Rob Neyer's commments notwithstanding, most other baseball people can't believe the Yankees would not do what it took to keep Pettite. I read an interesting interview with Whitey Ford--the pitcher who Pettite might have supplanted as the best lefty in Yankee history had he stayed--and Ford was more or less in shock, and all angry.
But whatever. Let the Yankees fans deal with that. As is becoming common, Hunsicker, McLane and a player who wanted out of a media circus found enough baling wire and scotch tape to fashion a deal together. And the Astros will be immeasurably richened this coming season by a pitcher who gives up some runs here and there, but knows how to win commensurate with his skill set about as well as anyone in his generation. Don't get me wrong: if Oswalt is healthy, Pettite will be the number two starter, and maybe even number three, depending on what Miller does in ST and early on. Pettite's stuff is not as good as either of those two guys. No-one looking at this deal should delude themselves otherwise.
Now, I like sabermetrics. Taken judiciously, OPS and RC27 and all that jazz can increase your understanding of what's going on. But what the guys who go overboard on this stuff don't understand is that the ability to win cannot be quantified, but it does exist. It's the difference between Chris Holt in '97 and Jeriome Robertson in 2003. It's the difference between Nolan Ryan and Mike Scott. Pettite has proven he's a winner, so I don't care whether his ERA+ was only 1.09. Sure, his ERA will probably be 4.00 in 2004--but he'll likely win 17 games. He always does. Just don't think he's a number one starter, OK?
So the greatest postseason in baseball history has concluded, and unfortunately, it played itself out without the participation of the Houston Astros.
The organization hasn't been quite so inactive; after a period in which we weren't sure whether GM Gerry Hunsicker might not end up working for the hated Mets, the club has re-signed him, and field manager Jimy Williams now has a new contract, as well.
The Astros did not finish first last year, or this year, and may not again any time soon, but I think that that is more a reflection of the talent, and not the qualifications of the helmsman. I still think Dierker was a better manager, but there was no reason to let Jimmah go; he's done well enough. In fact (he said, after seeing still more stories of the Marlins' victory parade on espn.com, and throwing caution to the wind), enough of this Hunsicker getting a free ride, already: of the three levels that might be assessed blame for the ultimate failure of the 2003 season, I'd assign Mr. Jimmah the least amount of same. Next week, or maybe the week after that, I'll talk about team defense, or lack thereof, and why Hunsicker has leveraged it badly in the wake of a Jeff Kent deal not looking nearly so good ten months later. . .
Cheo's son dropped a pop fly, Pudge and JT Snow collided, Trot Nixon hit a game-winning homer and praised Jesus, a nonentity by the name of Steve Bartman rose to his own level of incompetence, the Alex Gonzalez not nicknamed "Sea Bass" booted an easy grounder, an ex-manager by the name of Grady Little Left Pedro In Too Long, Joe Torre forgot he had some guy named Rivera in his bullpen, and meanwhile, Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio and Jeff Kent were hunting or fishing, or doing whatever else idle millionaires not born of privilege might do.
I believe the general perception among Astros fans is that Williams ain't no great shakes, and that his re-signing is not necessarily an event that should engender any great happiness among the Astros faithful. He has been accused of two main sins, as I see it: one, he failed to utilize Morgan Ensberg to the extent that he should have been, sticking with the Blum platoon long after it became obvious that Ensberg was the greater offensive weapon, and two, he overused and overworked the bullpen.
Anyone who's been here more than once or twice, or has seen my posts elsewhere, knows I believe Williams is guilty as charged on offense number one. Rob Neyer wrote about it during the season, and came to the conclusion that maybe, just maybe, it cost the Astros a game, or maybe even two at the outside. And we all know just how many games back of the Cubs the 'Stros finished. . . .
The second sin I don't see so well. I actually believe that Williams did a fantastic job managing the bullpen. Stories of abuse aside, no relief pitcher threw more than 87 innings, and the load was actually very evenly spread: Wagner, Dotel, Lidge, and Stone were within four innings of each other. But more to the point, Williams' decision-making seemed almost uncanny at times. If not quite on the level of Jack McKeon during the playoffs, Williams definitely had a knack for knowing who to go with, of being congizant of the hot hand of the moment. If not knowing to play Ensberg cost the Astros two games, I'd say that Williams' bullpen maneuverings won the Astros some games, very likely more than just two. And as far as an over-reliance on the bullpen in general, I think it's as simple as his starters not giving him any other choice.
So the Astros sputtered, and ran out of gas down the stretch, and now the finger-pointing and whining begins. From Darrell Pitman over at Ray Kerby's site to the Houston Chronicle to Billy Wagner, people are lining up four deep at the counter to point the finger at Drayton McLane for the team's final-week collapse.
Now, Darrell Pitman is a fan, like myself, and the Chronicle gets paid to speak to the fans; their take is a little bit more understandable to me, so it is perhaps Wagner's high-profile whining that sticks in my craw the most. Everything I've ever read about Wagner had indicated to me that he's a down-to-earth guy, a good person, if I might. And I have to factor in the disappointment and even anger he must feel knowing that he's probably gonna be traded before the 2004 season begins. But um, sorry people: on September 19, the Astros had a 1-1/2 game lead over the Cubs with eight games to go, and had maintained that the following day despite their 13-inning loss to the Cards that began the cold streak. If the 'Stros were in that position, then blew it, why is this Drayton McLane's fault? Why is this Gerry Hunsicker's fault?
Wagner in his widely-aired comments suggests that the club just couldn't open the pocketbook for that free agent signing that would have put the club over the top. Problem with that is, it's bullshit of the highest order. For those who don't remember, all the Astros did in the offseason was make the biggest free agent signing of all in Jeff Kent. And Kent responded with an off year, one in which his average, homers, and slugging were all down, and one in which his pitch selection basically sucked. Maybe next year Kent walks more than 39 times. Regardless, the fact that Kent couldn't take a pitch two Sundays past in the ninth vs. a struggling Isringhausen is McLane's fault? Oh, but Wagner meant pitching, you say. Wags' remarks made thinly-veiled reference to Woody Williams. Now Williams had a nice year, but unfortunately he wouldn't have been much help when the Astros most desperately needed it, during the stretch run, 'cause he was totally and completely out of gas by August 15, as the Astros should know very well. Wagner had a nice year, too, but maybe if he doesn't give up two homers September 22 vs. the Giants in the ninth, I'm not writing this. Or maybe if the club's core of Bagwell, Biggio, Berkman, Kent and Hidalgo hit higher than .243 as a group the last week, I'm not writing this, maybe I'm wondering whether or not the 'Stros can shut down Javy Lopez or some s***. Maybe if they hadn't combined to leave 74 on over the last eight games, or maybe if they hadn't struck nine times more as a group than they walked over that span. Or maybe if Wade Miller shows up vs. the Giants or if Jeriome can clear his head after what could have been a meaningless first-inning throwing error. . . .
For a column that started as anti-whining, I've gotten into the same pretty good, but here's some more, anyway. Now you shouldn't be hearing any grumbling from Bagwell about management; he's not put together that way, but what bugs me is something I saw from Bagwell after the Friday night loss to Milwaukee. Bags said something like,". . .it's not the end of the world." Well, no, Jeff, but hey, I was thinking you'd be a little more upset than you showed. I still remember reading a story written after the second game of the '97 NLDS that was talking about how loose Bags and Bidge were, despite being down 2 - 0 to the Braves, and I always wondered whether maybe they should've been tight. Everyone always talks about Bagwell wanting to win, but sometimes I wonder.
I think the AP put it best when they said something to the effect of: "this year the Astros didn't wait for the playoffs to stop hitting." That statement is not exactly fair, given the struggles the team went through regularly during the season. But seeing how the team's best stretch of baseball was immediately followed by its worst, I'm surprised I haven't seen more that places the team's failure squarely where it belongs: upon the shoulders of its players, instead of in the pocketbook of its owner.
Click here for a more complete breakdown of the big five's performance
during the last eight games.
There's been quite a bit that's been brutal about the last three games the Astros have played, quite a bit that quite frankly sucks about those three losses, but nothing we've seen was quite so brutal as the back-to-back homers Billy Wagner gave up in the ninth inning of last night's missed opportunity vs. the Giants. ESPN, in splashing it across the front of their MLB homepage, incorrectly notes that these were the first runs of any kind allowed by Wagner since July first. Actually, they were the second set of runs since July 1st, as Wagner gave up runs August 22 to the Reds. It was also the first time all year Wagner had given up 3, and only the fourth time that two of he club's three ace relievers in Wagner, Dotel and Lidge had given up runs in the same game.
It was NOT the first time--even in the last triptych of games--that the Astros had failed to extend a slim lead, then gone on to blow it. Looking at the numbers, Berkman had a fine game last night, but his failure to put the ball in play with the bases loaded and no outs in the fifth is basically inexcusable, in much the same way the always-astute John Lauck over at Astroday points out Jeff Kent's first pitch swinging with two on against a scrappling Isringhausen Sunday was. After a sparkling stretch of play--after their best stretch of the season--the Astros appear to have lost their heads, and their composure. Perhaps if the Astros had somehow pulled out Saturday's 3 - 2 loss to the Cards, this particular tailspin might have been averted; that game was at any rate the last time it didn't seem that the Astros gave the game away.
Ah, well. If the bullpen and the hitting with men on has been shaky, at the very least Wade Miller and Roy Oswalt have been spectacular lately. It is with these two pitchers that the Astros will attempt to take the series from the Giants, and there is still a good chance that those pitchers will allow them to get the job done. It is perhaps ironic that after coming into the season expecting great things from Oswalt and Miller, then coming as far as the team has powered by almost everything BUT them, that the team's chances of advancing to the postseason may very well hinge on those two aces--and that's not the worse situation to be in.
[PS--A day or so after updating last week, I stupidly overwrote this page with a version that featured the previous week's update. If anyone has a copy of the September 17 page in their internet cache, I invite them to email me with it. I'd be very glad to show my appreciation with some cool baseball cards for ya. Thanks. . .]
I'm gonna go ahead and write this now, rather than waiting for the end of the Brewers series, because, although the team might stumble and Friday morning could see the team in second place, it still would not invalidate the things I'm gonna write. It would just seem to, in the light of the assured depression such a fallback would bring on. And what I was gonna say, is that this is playoff baseball, ladies and gentleman, not quite do-or-die every night, but damn close to it, and the energy that the teams still in the hunt take from this atmosphere has led to some incredible performances so far. And there's still 17 games to go. Even staying away from the Astros for the moment, look at the Marlins the last couple nights. Playing a revitalized Mets team that clearly cherishes the role of spoiler, the Marlins, pushed to the brink two nights in a row, have reached back and found something extra in the eighth and ninth innings to keep their wildly improbable wild-card quest alive. And meanwhile, the team that they are most closely battling for the wild card berth, the Phillies, dug deep themselves, found some store of--anger, maybe?--and absolutely buried the Braves, 18 - 5 or some such ridiculous number, as if with one game they might obliterate the team that made their whole wild card chase necessary. These teams are reaching back for something extra, and finding it.
Just like the Astros. Three runs down, four outs to go. Another maddening loss of composure by Redding, another hit batsman with runners in scoring position, and there were four outs left before the 'Stros would fall a game behind the Cubs, who themselves had somehow managed to beat another team that was playing with desperation, the Expos. The Expos battled all night, wriggling out of bases loaded situations, falling behind, tying the score, falling behind, and tying the score again, homering in the ninth off Borowski, even, before finally succumbing, and most likely, ending any reasonable chances for their own playoff berth. So just playing with that extra energy is not always enough; the stars need to align, the belief has to be there, and then someone has to get it done. And Jose Vizcaino, of all people, reached back, and got it done. His wildly improbable 3 run shot just inside the foul pole at Miller Park rejuvenated a club that hadn't quit (after all, Berkman had doubled, and Hidalgo had walked, with 2 gone), but was clearly in deep trouble.
So Berkman doubles home another run in the ninth avoiding the injurious battle of attrition that extra innings would have become, and the 'Stros remained tied with the Cubs. But that wouldn't have happened, either, if the team hadn't come up with something special three days previous, in San Diego. People made a lot of the 7 - 1 loss Sunday, not paying enough attention to the fact that a victory Monday while the Cubs were idle, would square the two teams again. But imagine if they'd lost Saturday. . .
It was a game that reminded me so much of the no-hitter vs. New York. Ron Villone, clearly unprepared for his start, gave up 4 runs over the first two innings, and Jimy Williams, seeing Villone's state, and knowing how important each game can be, pulled him without giving him the chance to give up further damage. And then the bullpen came in, and like that summer night in New York, spun nothing but zeroes. For seven innings. A tired, overworked, even injured, in the case of Dotel, bullpen had once more been asked to hold the fort in the wake of a disastrous start. And once again, incredibly, it did so. Only Phil Nevin's eighth-inning single off the hurting Dotel kept Houston's bullpen work that night from being hitless. It was a game the Astros probably should have lost, but they won it, going away, and credit is due not only to Rick White, Dan Miceli, Mike Gallo, Brad Lidge, Dotel, and Billy Wagner, credit is also due to Williams, for reaching back and making a gutsy call. Daring to go to that bullpen again.
Basically, a team that has often been uninspired this season, has been anything but as crunch time plays itself out, and maybe, just maybe, this year will be different. Instead of peaking in August, as the 2001 and 2002 teams did, maybe this team will peak in September, and October. Certainly, the Phillies, the Marlins, and yes, even the Cubs, are giving them enough motivation.
Back and forth, back in first. Good time to write, no? Just took two of three on the road from a playoff contender AND beat arch-nemesis Kevin Brown to boot. Cubs and Cardinals have been beating the shit out of each other for the last four days and five games; hopefully they each won't have much gas left in the tank for their upcoming opponents. I guess the Cubs ended up taking four of five, but these were brutal affairs, friends: a four-hour rain delay, a 24-inning doubleheader, an allegedly expectorated-upon umpire, ejections, arguments, a six run lead blown by the Cardinals bullpen, the desperate use of Woody Williams in relief. . . .The games were like prize fights, tests of endurance that I hope drained both the combatants. And I pray the upcoming weekend home and homes with the Cards won't run similarly. I'd almost prefer a 10 - 1 shellacking over a 15-inning loss.
Anything to keep the bullpen fresh, huh? Saw that Lidge was at 97 last night at Chavez Ravine, and that's encouraging, but it seems of all the bullpen, only Wagner is throwing at the jaw-dropping level he was six weeks, or even a month ago. I'm hesitant to get too excited over the return of Roy Oz; for me, Jeriome Robertson's 6 K no-walk performance last night is much more encouraging. The race is so ridiculously close that if Roy can win even one one game, it could be huge, but his groin seems so fragile, that no fan should bank too much upon it holding up. At least his arm should be well-rested . . . .
I'd bet we split with the Cards; it's the games against the Padres and the Brewers--where the 'Stros can pick up those three games on the Cubs--that will make or break the season. Given the Brewers' history of success against Houston, and their recent red-hot play, just call me cautiously optimistic.
While the inconsistency of the Astros' play (especially their inability to string together a week-long or so collective hot streak with the bats) has got Astro fans all over the country frustrated (why can't a team with club MVP Hidalgo, Bagwell, Kent, and hot rookie Ensberg score MORE RUNS?), just imagine you're a Cub or Cardinal fan this Sunday morning. I'd be apoplectic, for example, after watching Kerry Wood, taking the hill trying to protect the first division lead the Cubs have had in six weeks, give up five runs in 2-2/3 to the Dodgers, of all people. And for the Cardinals fans, watching Woody Williams get rocked Friday night would have me in a state of desperation. The extra innings loss to the Reds Friday night was bad, coming off the series loss to the Cubs, but maybe not as bad as you think, when you coonsider the state of the competition. Still, it is quite possible the Central could have a different leader each night this coming week. The contestants are evenly matched, and I gotta say, uniformly mediocre.
Who is this in our middle bullpen? Rick White? Dan Miceli? These are not A-grade pickups. Micelli especially gives me the shivers. I remember that he was a cancer on the 2001 Marlins, who didn't win a game, and had an ERA over 6.00, yet still had the balls to snipe at manager John Boles through the press, and actually got the guy fired. Bad news. And White's not a pox, but outside of a good 20-game stretch last year with the Cards, he just isn't very good.
Here's hoping Pujols singles in a loss later today. . . .
Once again, I've been slacking on the new content, but the fact that I actually saw the 'Stros in person last night compels me to write. Tim Redding has got me totally and completely flummoxed. Every time I am sure that he and his fragile head cannot cut it in the majors, he comes back and dominates in a start. Actually, now his last two starts have been pretty dominant affairs. And it was Josh Beckett--hitting 97 on the gun left and right--who made the stupid mistake that cost his team the game. Marlins manager Jack McKeon told some reporter for the Miami Herald that he knew Beckett had balked home Jeff Bagwell before the umpire had even called it. Sitting in the stands amongst the Marlins fans, the call seemed neither readily apparent nor one that even should have been made. It was pretty obvious that Beckett was going to take Berkman down on strikes before it happened; the only "unfair advantage" Beckett took on Bagwell was the high-90's fastball he was chucking at Berkman. But hey, we'll take it. Unlike the Marlins, the Astros can use a break these days.
Oh yeah, Redding. There were certainly opportunities for Redding to go into his well-documented meltdown-mode, but he never gave in. In the fifth, Jeff Bagwell committed two very uncharacteristic defensive lapses on bunts (swinging and otherwise) down the first base line. And these were sandwiched around an extraordinarily gritty at bat by an outclassed Alex Gonzalez. Yet Redding, despite giving up a run on a Juan Pierre fielder's choice (and boy I thought they'd doubled up the speedy Pierre), came back and got the dangerous Ivan Rodriguez for the third out of the inning. No lapses of concentration, no hurried wild pitch, no excruciatingly drawn out four-pitch walk. Redding was on top of the business at hand, and once again I am thinking that maybe, just maybe, Redding can work his mid 90's fastball and excellent slider into a 17- or 18-win season one of these years.
Tonight's matchup is Carl Pavano and Jeriome Robertson. I'll be getting the Ivan Rodriguez bobblehead, but mostly I'm gonna be there to see how Robertson looks after having his win-streak broken. Prior to his loss to the Cubs last Sunday, Robertson had been in a rhythm like no Astros rookie pitcher ever, and I hope to see him slide back into it tonight. Forty-three games left, still in first.
And Lo, the Reds said unto the Astros: "Come unto us, come unto us, and we shall make ye well. As your OBP's had dropped, so shall they now rise. As your WHIPs had risen, so shall they now drop. Come unto us, we shall give you surcease, and a four-game sweep"
Congratulations to Craig Biggio, who hit his 500th career double during Thursday's second slaughter of the Reds. The hit brought Biggio to 27 two-sackers on the year, and the fact that he has an outside chance at 50 at his now-advanced age is nothing short of remarkable. Admitted limitations in his center-field game notwithstanding, the man continues to hustle. He is also on pace to crack the top 30 all-time in doubles by year's end, as well. Biggio Rocks!
Well there's not much to be said concerning the club's quality of play lately--'cause there hasn't been any--so I'll turn directly to the All-Star picks. The players had the relievers Smoltz-Gagne-Wagner and I have no problems with that. And all three will be in Chicago. But from there, things got very cloudy. Mike Williams is probably not three times worse a pitcher than Octavio Dotel. But his ERA is. And Armando Benitez? The guys at BlownSave.com must be banging their skulls with ball peen hammers. So Brian Giles sits, and Mike Williams goes, Dotel sits and Armando Benitez goes. Dontrelle Willis, Rocco Baldelli, Brad Lidge, and Frank Thomas sit, while Aaron Boone goes. There's gotta be a better way.
Anyway, Congratulations to Wagner. As the Astros faction becomes split asunder from infighting and backbiting, at least his selection aptly rewards his quality of play. Can Oswalt's second return from the DL provide the spark that this team so desperately needs? Or will that be provided by the return of Kent, still much too far off in the future for my liking?
So I guess these are the dark days: Texas takes two of three from us at M2, and the bullpen is hemorhaging each night. The team's best starter and our best hitter are both on the DL, and the luck the team is getting seems to be all bad. Just witness the game-breaking triple Sunday that Biggio fell down on. Right now I've got a sense of dread about the Milwaukee series, 'cause the time seems ripe for disaster, and they've hurt us before.
St. Louis, if not Chicago, seems hot, and I hope we can get to the All-Star break in range. The team will play better, but you hate to see it get buried. . . . At least I've got Dierker's book to keep my attention during the five-run innings we keep giving up.
Props definitely due to David Matranga, who became only the second Astro to homer in his first major-league at bat.
So I'm getting in the habit of doing all this websurfing at work, for good or ill. And I'm like McLuhan for the new millenia--very good at talking back to my surfing history. For example:
Over on the EZBoards, some guy -- fvega or ScottC, I think, was talking about how naysayers "need to eat some crow" or some such on Jeriome Robertson, and I'm not so sure. While I hope for success with Robertson--I like his, umm, makeup (and his puka beads), I'm not sure Sunday's game vs. the Rangers was a good example. There was the first inning homer, of course, but also Glanville was thrown out at home in the third. I mean kudos to Berkman and all, but more times than not you DON'T get the guy at home. Then Jeriome gets removed after only 5-1/3, leaving the club in a total jam with the bases juiced. The point of all this scary talk in re the bullpen is that the starters need to go longer. Robertson has not gone longer than 6 since his second start, and his ERA's still over 5 and a half. He has mixed in five quality starts, which indicates that throwing him out there every fifth day is still not a horrible idea, but no, I don't think that yesterday's game showed all that much.
From Robertson anyway. I've gone on a couple times I think regarding my doubts on Saarloos, but could he have been any more clutch Sunday night? Kirk Saarloos is the reason anyone's talking about Robertson today. If he doesn't strike out Mench and Blalock back to back in the sixth, Astros are probably looking up at the Cubs in the standings this day.
Also, coz Rob Neyer suggested I do so, I visited :: and another thing! ::, a blog run by some Cubs fan there, who, like many of his ilk, seems blithely incognizant of the chances to take control of the division the Cubs have squandered. He points out that the Cubs were 15 - 12 each of the first two months, and could conceivably do the same for June. Extend that to the conclusion and you get 90 wins, which he says could win the division. Way things are going, no "could" about it. Cubs, Cards and Astros all three have too many holes for the division to end otherwise. Sure could make a great team choosing from the best from the three, though. Think the Cubs' starters, Houston's relievers, and. . . Albert Pujols. That team could maybe hang with LA's pitching, and maybe hit with the Braves.
Speaking of Neyer, he is now publicly admitting (or on his website, anyway) that perhaps he made a mistake picking Mike Hampton as the number one starter in Astros history. Given his argument for Johnny Callison over Chuck Klein (!) for the Phillies, maybe he shoulda just read my Hampton page so that the one year wonder thing might have gotten hammered home a little bit more.
Anyway, the 'Stros should've won 2 of 3 last week vs. the Diamondbacks at home; and now you could say they should have won last night; seems no-one can hit the Astros' pen exceptfor the D-Backs. Maybe the Cubs and Cards'll lose a couple so we can stay tied. . . .
Congratulations to the Lance Berkman's Rice Owls, champions of the college baseball world. . . .
Well I'd say the euphoria over the no-hitter has well-nigh worn off; four straight losses since, including a sweep by the Red Sox, will do that. But surprisingly, I'm not really that worried. Except for perhaps Saturday's 8 - 4 loss to the Sox, the Astros were in every game, and played well in each of them. Such consolations sound a little like something a fan of the Royals, for example, might take, but I think in this case, it's alright. First off, the 'Stros were coming off 6 straight interleague wins at home. Put together, that made the Astros 7 - 5 during the two week AL swing. 7 - 5 is exactly the Cubs' record over their last twelve games. Given that the trip now concluded is wIthout question the most difficult of the season, and that we stand exactly where we did before interleague play began, I'd have to say I'm happy. Even though Bagwell's slump--the number of times he fails to come through when the team could desperately use a clutch hit--is starting to become embarassing. Off tonight, while the Cubs and Cardinals play. . . .
Met my buddy at one of those wings and beer places Friday night, and caught the Cubs' loss to the ball-scratching David Wells, and while that was gratifying enough, the logistics of the whole thing did not permit me to catch the Astros' victory over the Devil Rays the same evening, and I'm regretting that deeply still. John Lauck's typically fine analysis over at Astrosdaily/Astroday will give you the skinny on an amazing game, one that had just about everything, including an irate Lou Piniella. Which is always fun.
The win was a clutch one for the Astros, who took over first with the win, and ran their record to 23-11 since the Braves' three-game sweep of them to begin the month of May. It's hard not to like the way the Astros are playing right now. The front-line starters are finally pitching well, Everett is playing solid, consistent, sometimes remarkable, defense, role players like Viz, Brian L Hunter, and Merced are contributing, and Morgan Ensberg is quite simply out of his skull with a 1.137 OPS. Plus, the MVP of the first six weeks, Richard Hidalgo, returns tonight. But it's also hard to know what to take out of a game that saw the Astros blow a 7-0 lead. Despite the 6-1 record over the last week, the bullpen has begun to show some cracks lately. Stone has had back-to-back poor outings, and both Lidge and Dotel have given up important runs recently. The great concern has been about the blowing up of the bullpen due to Jimmah's overuse (maybe exemplified again by the removal of Robertson after 3-2/3 last night?), and while I don't think you could say it's unequivocably begun, I do have fears in that area.
Also, these are not your mother's Devil Rays. Having caught the D-Rays victory over the Drubs Wednesday night, I was impressed by a) Rocco Baldelli b) that there seems to be a tangible desire to win that maybe has not been there over past seasons. Sweet Lou, man.
Piniella had to use tonight's scheduled starter, Carlos Reyes, last night in relief, and that's a plus, but Houston will only counter with Jonathan Johnson. While Johnson pitched well in his previous start, you gotta wonder what he will bring tonight vs what has been a motivated Tampa Bay club. In my opinion, it's very important to sweep the D-Rays, simply because of the road sweep that follows vs. the Yankees and the Red Sox. The pessimist in me says the Astros might need some breathing room going into that stretch. Let's see what happens.
Now that's more like it. Wade Miller's complete-game two hitter combined with two four-run innings (AND a homer by Ensberg) is just what the Astros needed to start the current series against the Drubs. The Cubs should be very worried; at a time when the Astros and the Cardinals can't seem to play consistent ball, whether it be due to slumps, injuries, or both, the Cubs have been unable to consolidate their lead. If the Astros are not able to make the Cubs regret this later in the year, the Cards almost certainly will. With Oswalt due back tomorrow and Isringhausen on the horizon for St. Louis, it may already be too late for the Wrigley faithful.
Hidalgo (is he your MVP so far, as well?) may still be out for another week or so, but perhaps Bagwell is pulling out of his slump, Biggio is seeming to reach a plateau at around .280, and the Ensberg/Blum platoon is no mirage; it appears as if we can really can rely on this pair of third baseman hitting from opposite sides, each batting .280 with some power, for Jimmah to deploy as he likes.
Just as Scott Linebrink appears to show that he can give the club some quality innings as a starter, he is sent to AAA and fails to clear waivers. Maybe the Pads can figure out what to do with him. Although the lineup totally let him down, you gotta feel good for Jonathan Johnson. He pitched very well Wednesday night.
I hope it's sunny and warm for Roy tomorrow in Chi-town.
Way too long since an update. Very busy, you know? A lot's happened since April 9. As of May 24, the Astros sit a half-game back of the Cubs, in second place by their lonesome after their 7-5 victory over Mark Prior Friday the 23rd. Because of the rainout the Drubs had experienced Tuesday, and their offday Thursday, it had been nearly a week since Prior had pitched, and his rhythm was clearly off. The Astros scored the six off Prior in the first, keyed by Viz' homer, but should have scored some more off him in the fourth as well, when a clearly struggling Bagwell grounded into a DP with the bases juiced. A young, overworked gun like Prior may wear down as the season wears on, but clearly the Astros were lucky to get a win over such a pitcher in May, and credit here must also go to Scott Linebrink, as well. Could he be a major league starter?
Injuries and overwork by Mr. Jimmah remain a concern, but there is no question that Brad Lidge has shown he can get guys out up here. The Astros, with Stone in the sixth, Lidge in the seventh, Dotel in the eighth, and Wagner in the ninth, have the deepest, best, bullpen in the game right now. It can't last, and when pitchers do start to break down from overuse, it will HURT, but my my it's impressive right now. Let's say Jeriome Robertson goes 5-2/3 innings, as he did Thursday. We then toss out Stone, with an ERA of 2.36. Then for the seventh comes Lidge with an ERA of 1.26. The eighth brings Dotel with an ERA of 1.35, and Wagner closes it out with an ERA of 1.93. Positively scary.
The Astros have had no consistently good starting pitching this year. And with Oswalt out (he is developing a history of groin pulls--this is scary, my friends), only Wade Miller seems to be able to offer some any time soon. But so far it simply hasn't mattered. With a lineup that has produced to my satisfaction, despite some slumps by each guy in the top six (save maybe Doggy), if a guy like Robertson gives up 3 or 4 over 5, the Astros are in a real good position to win the ballgame. The bullpen has been that good.
Tonight Shawn Estes, 4 - 3 on the year, will face Tim Redding, who will try to push his record over .500. Noitwithstanding what I've said above, Redding has pitched well, and might even be considered the "ace" of the staff early on. I'm thinking the Astros should take the game, and with it a half-game lead in the just-better-than-mediocre Central.
The nonresponsiveness of the lineup against Ryan Dempster Tuesday evening somewhat tempers what might have been a rather cocky update. The Astro world could not have been much higher than it was at about 4:00 Eastern Time Saturday. Ausmus' game-winning RBI (for the second straight day) against the Cardinals had me wondering how good it could get. Even Richard Hidalgo was hitting. I'll leave treatises concerning the availability of Jim Edmonds in relation to the cancellation of the Sunday game that never happened to other commentators, but the cancellation of that game meant alot more once Dempster had negated Oswalt's performance Tuesday night.
The Astros have now scored four runs over their last 30 innings. And even though I don't blame everything on Blum, maybe Jimy gives Ensberg a shot vs. the Reds behind Miller?
Watch this space. Or some other.
Pessimist that I am, I find myself wondering more about Bruce Chen's shaky outing against the Rockies Tuesday night than revelling in all the good things that happened. Sure Oswalt was great, but that was no surprise. And if Kent homering in his first bat, or even Bagpipes becoming only the second Houston major-leaguer (after Roman Mejias) to homer twice on opening day was perhaps unexpected, their quality of play was not. Hidalgo and Blum getting in on the run-creation action after indifferent (Doggie) and poor (Blum) springs was nice, but what will make or break this team I think is middle relief pitching, and Chen is one of the guys the 'Stros will be relying on. The score thus far is:
March 27, 2003--
| Player | AB | R | H | RBI | E | Avg. | |
| Craig Biggio | 67 | 8 | 14 | 8 | 1 | .209 | |
| Geoff Blum | 71 | 9 | 18 | 7 | 6 | .254 | |
| (John Buck) | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .200 | |
| Morgan Ensberg | 51 | 12 | 16 | 8 | 3 | .314 | |
| Victor Hall | 32 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 1 | .219 | |
| Richard Hidalgo | 43 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 1 | .256 | |
| Jeff Kent | 44 | 3 | 14 | 9 | 1 | .318 | |
| Jason Lane | 60 | 5 | 15 | 4 | 1 | .250 | |
| (Tommy Whiteman) | 13 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | .231 | |
| Pitcher | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | ERA |
| (Jared Fernandez) (0 - 0) | 5 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5.40 |
| Brian Moehler (2 - 1) | 23 | 31 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 3.91 |
| Tim Redding (1 - 2) | 18-1/3 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 3.44 |
| (Shane Reynolds) (0 - 1) | 23 | 30 | 17 | 15 | 5 | 11 | 5.87 |
| (Kirk Saarloos) (2 - 0) | 7-1/3 | 16 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 9.82 |
| (Players in parentheses) have been reassigned | |||||||
I'm on the Astros.com email list, so when the Astros made the Kent deal,I first found out about it in my email inbox. Kinda cool; keeps me up to date, you know. So it is today as I fired up Outlook and found that Houston had released Shane Reynolds. No-one who's come here more than once needs to be told that Shaner was probably my favorite Astro, and certainly my favorite pitcher. I was pulling so hard for the man to have a strong season last year and get into the top five for wins, and after witnessing some waffling on the part of the club, was overjoyed to see him re-signed for 2003.
But when I read the item the team had emailed me, I thought I understood the move. Reynolds was coming off an injury, and had frankly been fairly lousy during ST--nine homers is a figure that jumps into my mind as I write. But after having perused the story on mlb.com, I am a little more worried. Shane does not say so, but I think he feels more than a little betrayed, and the mindstate of his teammates is something most closely described as shock. If I thought it might have been fair to release Reynolds, given the recent lights-out piching performances of Redding and Robertson, his teammates most certainly did not feel similarly.
The team has been up and down in ST, but you would still have to say that the spring has been positive. Even after Thursday's loss to Hampton and the Braves, the team was sitting at 15 - 11, had seen very encouraging performances from question-mark guys like Redding and Ensberg, and if Biggio hasn't hit, it certainly seems like he can play the outfield. I wonder now if all this good news won't be forgotten as the team readies for its opener Tuesday vs. Colorado.
Reynolds may have had an ERA of 5.87, but that was not too much higher than Oswalt's 4.95--and Oswalt is starting that home opener. Reynolds may have given up nine homers, but how many were due to "Spring Wind" as John Lauck at Astrosday called it after Shane's most recent start, and how many were due to the experimentation of a veteran who's not worried about making the team trying to rebuild his repertoire? For a team whose predicted Achilles Heel is middle relief pitching, perhaps when confronted with a surprise performance like Robertson's, the best move may have been to get him into the bullpen. And lastly, perhaps the reaction of team veterans and leaders should have been considered.
Hunsicker is a very good GM. It's just that maybe Shane still could have been a very good pitcher. We'll see what the ramifications of this move will be as the season plays out.
Also, you are free to disagree, but I think Morgan Ensberg has done what he needed to do to prove he should be opening day third baseman.
February 6, 2003--
Congratulations to Brian Moehler, the new ace of the New Orleans Zephyrs staff. I've picked up some griping about the Astros having given Moehler the guaranteed contract, but these days a half mil seems about right for an insurance contract--which is what Moehler will be. I will readily admit my knuckleball fetish, but I still think that Jared Fernandez has the better chance of making the Astros' rotation than Moehler. If you pushed me, I'd probably say Jared Fernandez has a better chance of making the Astros' rotation than Kirk Saarloos--but that's another rant entirely. Anyway, what I'm trying to say is that there are a whole bunch of question marks in regard the Astros rotation for 2003.
Click here to check out the Archives for 2002
Number one and number two starters are of course no problem barring injury (knock on wood!), but can Shane Reynolds make the recovery he is so confident of making? Will Carlos Hernandez make any kind of recovery at all? Can Kirk Saarloos get major league hitters out consistently with his high-80's fastball? And can Jared Fernandez get hitters out with a high-60's knuckler? A lot of questions, and I like my answers to at least two of them, but the fact that the questions exist at all makes the concept of insurance a good idea. So great, Gerry, by all means sign Brian Moehler. And I will, by all means, hope he spends the entire year at Triple A.
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